Oscars 2015: Online Film Critics Society Nominations
The Online Film Critics Society announced their nominees earlier today.
I really put no stock into this as an Oscar precursor at all (critics don’t vote for awards. You think OFCS nominated Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close?), so really this is just gonna be about seeing how closely they match up with my tastes and the general tastes of the season.
So here we go:
Mad Max: Fury Road
Well… this is a solid list. Ex Machina’s going nowhere near the Oscars, but it’s nice to see it on here, because that’s one of those movies that’s universally regarded as being great from this year.
The other nine… shit, I haven’t seen two of them (one of those will be remedied in the next two hours), but that could be my top ten list. I’m curious which of the upcoming films they have or haven’t seen (namely: Hateful Eight and Joy). Either way, those up there are a respectable list.
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Denis Villeneuve, Sicario
No real surprises here. Curious to see if Carol holds up as a Director nominee. Inarritu is a wild card, so is John Crowley (though that would show an extreme love of Brooklyn on their part). Spielberg seems unlikely, though DGA maybe could show him some love. Lenny Abrahamson needs a lot of love to make it. Quentin probably won’t get on. Laszlo Nemes is a wild card, since we’ve yet to see whether they really love his movie or not. Danny Boyle has to be considered, however unlikely. Tom Hooper seems out. David O. Russell seems to be in the conversation at this moment. Cari Fukunaga seems very unlikely, as does Scott Cooper. McCarthy, Scott and Miller seem like locks right now. Villeneuve looks strong. The others are gonna come down to how the DGA votes and what the prevailing films are.
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
Three of those seem like solid bets at the final list. (Damon… ehh, okay. But I can see them going for him.) Jordan won’t get enough momentum (SAG is a big test for him coming up on Wednesday), and McKellen could get SAG but is facing threats from a few different fronts. Depp never felt like a nominee, but I’m not ruling him out just yet. Redmayne still looms large. Michael Caine is a huge factor here, with both SAG and BAFTA likely giving him support. Hanks is a red herring (you’re gonna nominate him for Bridge of Spies and not Captain Phillips?), and Will Smith won’t go anywhere near it without a SAG nod. Don’t rule out Geza Rohrig for Son of Saul (I watched it last night. Holy fuck), but don’t expect to see him get a SAG nod, since I doubt he’s a member. The Big Short seems to be coming up a… yeah, you see where that sentence was going. Cranson, no. Gyllenhaal no. Cusack needs big SAG support in order to go anywhere. (Dano’s getting all the love there.) Beasts of No Nation looks to have fallen by the wayside (I think most people around town are considering it a “Netflix” film and aren’t taking it seriously. PGA needs to nominate it if it’s gonna do anything), and the kid being nominated is a non-factor. Tom Hardy in Legend likely is out too. This will be an interesting year. There’s no clear cut winner at all. That’s why they’re saying DiCaprio. To me, Fassbender, with his two performances, looks to be the frontrunner, but it’s early.
Look at me. This is months of watching movies and being unable to talk about it (since fuck talking about Oscar shit before the season starts. If anyone has a potential nominees chart in July they’re jerking off). This is all just perception, with no real data. I’ll get into it more once real stuff starts rolling in (Wednesday).
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
Blanchett, Larson, Ronan. They’ve been in the conversation since October. Very unlikely to see any of them not get on. Rampling, I’m seeing show up everywhere on all these lists, and SAG will likely help her, but I just watched her movie — don’t get it. It’s a nice movie, but I don’t see it. I didn’t see Emmanuelle Riva in Amour either, so there’s that. She seems likely to nab a fourth spot.
Jennifer Lawrence looms large. Early reviews of Joy are not positive, though she seems to be getting good notices. She seems like your likely fifth nominee. Theron is nice to see here, but let’s not pretend like she’s really gonna get nominated.
Of the others I’ve seen in the conversation — no on Blythe Danner. No on Emily Blunt. Maggie Smith needs a SAG nod to get anywhere (and even then…), Helen Mirren is a joke (though Harvey does pull off SAG nods). Carey Mulligan has a shot. Lily Tomlin is doubtful bit should remain peripherally in the conversation. Rooney Mara seems to be being pushed for Supporting, so she’s out for here.
Carey Mulligan, Lily Tomlin and Maggie Smith seem like your alternatives from the main five. Especially since Alicia Vikander is also being pushed for Supporting in her main performances.
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Love this list. Oscar Isaac — best dancing scene of 2015. Best scene of 2015. Won’t be nominated, but love to see him here.
Benicio, fuck yes. Should be nominated. Mark Rylance, fuck yes, will likely be nominated. Ruffalo, they’re gonna nominate someone from Spotlight. He has the showiest part. Keaton is the alternative, and also the potential running mate. They could sneak them both on.
Stallone is riding a huge wave of support since the movie came out, and it would be a great story to see him nominated for so many reasons. I need to see SAG before I can proclaim it, but he is absolutely in the conversation at the moment.
Tom Hardy for The Revenant is possible but unlikely. Paul Dano seems like a strong contender for a nomination. The kid from Room could get on if they really love that movie. Maybe not SAG (though maybe he is SAG?), but he definitely could get on. Idris Elba needs a big nomination to be in the conversation. Someone from Hateful Eight.. maybe, but doubtful. Michael Shannon seems like a false hope. I feel like people will push for him to get on there, but he really needs SAG. Not even the Globe or BAFTA. He needs SAG to really compete. The Big Short seems unlikely based on how that is rolling out. This one is tough. I need to see who SAG responds to. This one is still pretty open.
Best Supporting Actress
Rooney Mara, Carol
Cynthia Nixon, James White
Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Rooney Mara is probably a lead. As is Alicia Vikander. But fuck it, they’re great (haven’t seen Carol, so I’m speaking purely of the actresses), so fine. Kate Winslet deserves to be nominated. Kristen Stewart seems very unlikely to make it. She’ll need SAG, which she likely won’t get. Cynthia Nixon I’m hearing incredible things about. We’ll see if she can get any precursor cred. Jennifer Jason Leigh is popping up places for both Anomalisa and Hateful Eight, so she’s a solid contender. She could be the Patricia Arquette of this year. Elizabeth Banks has been mentioned, given the acting love for that film, but I can’t see it at all. Jane Fonda has been mentioned, but she has one scene in that movie (and another half a second moment that should just not be there at all). Joan Allen is a sneaky contender and I think she should be taken seriously (they love them some Joan Allen). Marion Cotillard is going Supporting for Macbeth, and I don’t think they’ll go there. This category is also open to some surprises. We’ll see where SAG goes.
Best Original Screenplay
Sure. Too early to think about Screenplays. Quentin should be nominated. Spotlight will likely win. Inside Out should for sure be there. Don’t rule out Son of Saul, or Joy, or Love & Mercy. Sicario… not sure. Maybe. Straight Outta Compton will get a guild nod but not be nominated. Likely same for Trainwreck. These things happen every year. Mad Max they’d have to love to put on there. And even then, that’s about storyboarding and not necessarily writing. Doubtful that can also get a Screenplay nod.
Best Adapted Screenplay
This could be the category and I’d be totally fine with it. Aaron Sorkin deserves another Oscar for what he did with Jobs. And The Martian also is well deserving of a nomination. The others make total sense.
Another potential contenders… probably Anomalisa. The Danish Girl seems like a huge also-ran. As does The Big Short. I’d love to see Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, but that movie seems like it didn’t go anywhere with its awards push. Trumbo… ehh. I think this will probably be the category. (Though look at End of the Tour for a WGA nod. That feels like something that’ll happen.)
Mad Max: Fury Road
Yes all around. Editing goes the way their Best Picture favorites go. So if they love Spotlight, that’ll get on over something else that actually edits well. Hateful Eight, Bridge of Spies, Joy, Star Wars, even. It all comes down to what they love. Creed, In the Heart of the Sea — all depends on what the major nominees will be.
Mad Max: Fury Road
This could well be your Oscar category. The Assassin will for sure be nominated. They love one foreign nominee per year, and goddamn, that movie. So yes on that. Yes on Deakins, yes on Chivo. Mad Max seems very very likely. Fifth spot — Carol, Bridge of Spies, The Martian, Son of Saul, Hateful Eight, maybe even The Danish Girl. They like a lot of DPs. Don’t rule out a vet getting on.
Best Animated Feature
The Good Dinosaur
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep Movie
I said earlier this is probably the Oscar category. No reason to go back on that now.
Best Foreign Language Film
Son of Saul
These are all solid movies. Phoenix wasn’t eligible. Son of Saul is probably winning. Mustang is solid. Goodnight Mommy is well liked. The Assassin makes sense. I can see this. But this means nothing, because the branch does weird things. You have to just guess with this category.
Best of Enemies
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
The Look of Silence
Yes, these are all shortlisted. So there’s that. I can see possibly four of these getting on. Maybe not Going Clear, but the other four seem like solid choices. I’m trying to knock out most of that shortlist before nominations are announced. I’m at 12 of 15 right now. Still need to see the Michael Moore one, that one about the dog that seems like it has no shot, and one of the other political ones. I’m curious to see if this helps my guessing or not. The Documentary branch is weird.
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So yeah, those are your OFCS nominees. I don’t care who wins. It means nothing. This just gives me an excuse to start talking Oscars, which I’ve been patiently waiting to do for months now.